From : Robert Ward <eiu_enquiries@eiu.com>
To : David Sergeenko
Subject : EIU Newsletter
Received On : 29.06.2018 08:10
 
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Intelligent thinking
 
A monthly update featuring a selection of the latest news and analysis from The EIU's experts.
 
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Global forecast: July 2018
 
In our latest global outlook video, director of Country Risk Service Felix Delbrück, Asia analyst Agathe L'homme and director of global forecasting John Ferguson discuss the recent US-North Korea summit, the acrimonious G7 meeting, and ongoing trade tensions between the US and many of its trade partners.
 

 
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Economic and political analysis
 
There is a possibility of the US-China trade dispute escalating to further rounds of non-tariff barriers of the sort that harm business confidence, investment decisions, diplomatic ties and, ultimately, the performance of the global economy.
Although progress on a sustained reduction in tensions and a normalisation of ties is possible, we retain our view that there is a low chance of complete denuclearisation.

Well-established supply chains, a skilled workforce, low labour costs and a good location make central Europe an attractive investment location. Several new automotive projects are in the pipeline.
With ten months to go until the UK is, formally at least, meant to leave the EU, there are at least five possible ways in which we see Brexit playing out.

Turkey's banking sector is facing difficulties owing to the decreasing availability of Treasury guarantees for corporate debt, rising funding costs under tightening global liquidity conditions, and domestic political and economic uncertainty.


Jordan needs further financial aid from the EU and its member nations to tackle the influx of Syrian refugees, while for the EU nations, Jordan offers trade and investment opportunities. Given these mutual benefits, both sides will strengthen relations in the coming years.


Under the terms of the deal, the government has adopted somewhat tougher fiscal targets, under which the primary deficit will be eliminated in 2020 and move into surplus in 2021. The government has also committed to giving the central bank full independence to establish inflation targets.


 
 
Popular webinars
 
 
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This webinar examines how shifts in the balance of power in the global oil market, and heightened geopolitical risks will impact oil prices in 2018-19.

 
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When large external funding needs and institutional fragility coincide, this new climate of fear can rapidly spiral out of control, as recent events in Turkey and Argentina have shown. This webinar reviews the nature of the current turmoil and asks "who might be next"?

 
 
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Latest white papers
 
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This report provides our short and medium impact of the Trump/Kim summit.


 
 
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This report assesses how well prepared the world's largest 82 countries are for technological change.

 
 
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This report examines the western Balkans, focusing on the region's EU membership and growth prospects.
 
 
 
 
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