Aysan Murtezaoglu <Aysan.Murtezaoglu@gilead.com>; Sean Barr <Sean.Barr@gilead.com>
Received On :
17.10.2017 09:59
Dear Graeme,
I apologize for late answer. Please find below requested information:
The main principles of forecasting the amount of Harvoni for 2018:
Annual forecast:
1. In the forecast is considered average number of HCV patients: monthly 2500 (annually 30 000) *;
2. Statistically 90% of HCV patients (2500 patient) are undergoing 12-month treatment regimens and 10% - (250 patients) 24-week treatment regimens;
3. The amount of medicines required annually is forecasted in accordance with the first and second paragraphs;
4. On the basis of the abovementioned data, annual forecast of Harvoni is about 97 180*.
* In 2017, the number of patients is 1200 on monthly basis. If we assume that the current situation will remain unchanged (which is undesirable) the annual forecast of Harvoni will be 47520 bottles.
The remained balance as of October 2017
1. The number of Harvoni bottles provided in 2017 = 42088;
2. The number of Harvoni bottles disbursed through Committee in 2017 (including September) = 22613;
3. The number of remained Harvoni bottles in stock for treatment new cases, after October 2017 = 19475;
4. Average monthly expenditure varies between 2800-3800 bottles;
5. Considering the highest number of expenditure, the existing stock is sufficient approximately for 5 months (including February), for the treatment of about 8600 patients.
The required amount of Harvoni for 2018
Considering the annual forecast and remaining balance for 2017, the required number of Harvoni bottles for 2018 is about 81 720;
Considering the term of exhaustion of the remaining balance, also procedures related to supply, the delivery of the drug should be done no later than January 31, 2018.
In case of additional questions do not hesitate to contact me.
Best regards,
Sopo Belkania
Head of HR Management and International Relations Department
Ministry of Labor, Health and Social Affairs of Georgia
144 A.Tsereteli Avenue, 0159, Tbilisi, Georgia
Mobile number: +995 599 22 32 32
-----Original Message-----
From: Graeme Robertson [mailto:Graeme.Robertson@gilead.com]
Sent: Tuesday, October 17, 2017 3:10 AM
To: Sopo Belkania
Cc: Aysan Murtezaoglu; Sean Barr
Subject: Re: Report September
Dear Sopo
I hope all well with you.
Please can you kindly let me know when you will need a new shipment of Harvoni?
I am getting nervous that you are getting low on stock in Georgia
Please kindly let me know your forecast as soon as possible
Thank you and best wishes
Graeme
Sent from my iPhone
On 2 Oct 2017, at 09:30, Sopo Belkania > wrote:
Dear Graeme and Aysan,
Hope this email find you well.
Please find attached report for September month.
Best regards,
Sopo Belkania
Head of HR Management and International Relations Department Ministry of Labor, Health and Social Affairs of Georgia
144 A.Tsereteli Avenue, 0159, Tbilisi, Georgia Mobile number: +995 599 22 32 32
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