All,

     As the West and the East once again find themselves in a sadly familiar and deteriorating stand-off all to reminiscent of the Cold War, the implications, complexities, and potential threats to our personnel stretch far beyond the relatively small group of Abt staff currently supporting our current program in Ukraine.  I thought some of you might find this brief summary/analysis provided by one of our subscription reporting services (LIGNET) useful.  With Ethnic Russians making up over 55% of the population of Crimea, the results of the upcoming referendum regarding annexation by Russia are all but a forgone conclusion.  70% of Europe’s oil/gas pass through pipelines crossing Ukraine and any possibility that the West will stand fully united in the face of Putin’s expansionist intentions, whatever they might be, are simple folly.  While we may philosophically oppose international moves that appear to thwart the right of self-determination by independent people’s and ethnic groups whether in the Baltic States, Belorus, or Central Asia, the efficacy of sanctions, however cleverly they may be architected is highly questionable.  Moreover, as much as we might viscerally oppose Putin’s support of resurgent Russian nationalism, stability in countless regions of the world increasingly depends on the ability of the US and Russia to peacefully and effectively manage their affairs…including relations with Syria, China, North Korea, and global issues such as energy, food security, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.  How we handle this increasingly complex and threatening issue will have a significant impact on those states we consider “fragile” and create a potential increase in the numbers of States that may come to fit that description.  Few of us are involved directly with work in Ukraine but it is an area we all must be laser focused on.

David Rolph

Director of Global Security

Abt Associates

301-347-5684 (Office)

703-244-3672 (Cell)