Dear Colleagues,

A total of 17,145 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been reported in five affected, and three previously affected, countries up to the end of 30 November. There have now been 6,070 reported deaths. In most areas, exponential growth of the disease is no longer being seen.  In fact, steep declines in EVD have been seen in Liberia, in eastern parts of Sierra Leone and also in parts of Guinea. Overall case incidence is reported to be slightly increasing in Guinea, stable or declining in Liberia, and is still growing in Sierra Leone, with 537 new confirmed cases in the last week. While WHO has reported a real slowdown in the speed of new cases in many areas, experts caution that such gains are fragile and easily reversed.

In an effort to stem the disease, Sierra Leone has quarantined a sixth district. Currently, more than half of the country's population is under lockdown. Authorities are urging Sierra Leoneans to end funeral rites involving washing the bodies of the dead. Teams are also being sent through the capital to search for bodies of Ebola victims that family members may be hiding.

Ebola response activities continue to intensify and are closing the gap between rate of disease and the response capacity. On 1 December, WHO reported that  the United Nations target of having 70 percent of Ebola victims buried safely and 70 percent of Ebola patients treated in isolation beds within 60 days has been met in Liberia and Guinea. Sierra Leone is reported to have met the 70 percent safe burial target, but remains unable to isolate and treat 70 percent of those infected. New bed capacity in Sierra Leone might bring that target in reach in the next few weeks. At a national level, there is now sufficient bed capacity in EVD treatment facilities to treat and isolate all reported EVD cases in each of the three countries. However, there is uneven distribution of beds and EVD cases. This means the number of beds in some areas still fall seriously short.

The WHO officially declared the Ebola outbreak in Spain over on 2 December. In the United States, all contacts in the country have completed the 21-day follow-up period. The outbreak will be declared over in the U.S. once 42 days have passed since the last patient with EVD tested negative twice. To date, there have been a total of eight cases including six deaths reported in Mali. Currently, 227 contacts linked with the outbreak in Bamako are being monitored.

Please email David Rolph, our director of Global Security, david_rolph@abtassoc.com and cc Sarah Dedic, sarah_dedic@abtassoc.com with any questions you have about the status of the outbreak. 

Best,

Jay

Jay L. Knott | Executive Vice President, Chief Business Officer | Abt Associates

O: 301-347-5896| F: 301-828-9739 | www.abtassociates.com

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