Synopsis
Yesterday, US Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl was released from Taliban captivity in exchange for five Guantanamo detainees. This action sets a yet another dangerous precedent that, as stated in previous analysis, places American expatriates at an even greater risk of abduction than ever before.
This threat to American citizens should be considered tangible , realistic and should challenge mission organizations and aid agencies to consider re-evaluating older risk assessments on ministry projects and locations that were considered less vulnerable in the past. This includes locations with lower level Islamic terror threats including Sub-Saharan Africa as well locations in South Asia and Oceania where radicalized elements are showing signs of revival after several years of relative quiet.
No one knows for sure what the future holds. However, storm clouds on the threat horizon are visible as series of at least seven independent events have occurred in North Africa, East Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and now Central Asia in 2014. These events are driving concerns that Americans living in areas that are prone to Islamic radicalism s need to prepare for a new “normal now” as the current security climate shows the possibility of a strategic shift.
As a result of these changes, it is recommended that organizations assess new risk, seek to collaborate with other companies and organizations co-located in areas of risk for security best practice and connection into local security networks.
Background
Since around April 2014, a series of events by both state and non state actors has increased the threat of abduction for American citizens, not just in the usual hotspots like MENA and Central Asia, but perhaps around the word. Succinctly:
April 15, 2014. Jordanian Ambassador to Libya Fawaz al-Itan was kidnapped by gunmen who demanded an Islamist militant be released from a Jordanian jail in exchange for the diplomat's freedom. Islamists in Tripoli demanded the release of terrorist Mohamed Dersi, an Islamist militant jailed for life in 2007 for plotting to blow up the international airport near Amman.
April 26, 2014. Al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri has called on Muslims to kidnap Westerners, particularly Americans, who could then be exchanged for jailed jihadists. Eleven days after the abduction of the Jordanian ambassador, the leader of al-Qaeda challenges Islamists around the world to work together. Specifically: “The Ummah (Muslim world) must support this jihad with all that it can, and the mujahedeen (Islamist militants) must unite around the word of Tawhid (unity)." This was seen by many as a clarion call for jihadists and wannabes to work together for the release of key terror leaders by increasing the number of kidnapped Americans and Westerners for the express purpose of prisoner exchange (rather than financial or other ransom).
May 7, 2014. Due to ongoing threats to American Citizens and US Embassy personnel in Yemen, the US Embassy in Sana’a reduces staff and limits consular services. As of May 21, the US Embassy remains at reduced staffing and limited movement due to kidnapping threats.
May 13, 2014. Mohamed Dersi is released from prison in Jordan and flown to Tripoli. Subsequently, Ambassador Fawaz al-Itan was released unharmed and returned to Amman. Concern grows that this move will embolden militants North Africa and Middle East.
May 16, 2014. Algerian Embassy in Tripoli closes due to fears of kidnapping of diplomats and staff. Other embassies soon follow suit.
May 17, 2014. Due to kidnapping threats against embassy staff at the US Embassy in Nairobi, Kenya, the State Department releases a statement that the embassy will be reducing US staff effective immediately.
May 23, 2014. Al-Shabaab releases a video called “Muslims of Bangui and Mombasa: a Tale of Tragedy”. In this video, al-Shabaab commander Ahmed Abdi Godane gives a 36-minute presentation about his group's views on the state of Muslims in Africa and the world. Most disturbing, Godane blames ‘Western Missionaries’ in Central African Republic for UN attacks on Muslims in CAR as well as damming relations between Muslims and Christians dating back to the Crusades in the Middle Ages, all the way to the July 1995 Muslim massacre at Srebrenica.
May 31, 2014. The only American soldier held by the Taliban is freed in exchange for five Islamist commanders and leaders held at Guantanamo Bay. Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl release was secured when the Obama Administration, with help from the Qatari Government, agreed to release Mohammad Fazl, Mullah Norullah Noori, Mohammed Nabi, Khairullah Khairkhwa and Abdul Haq Wasiq. All senior level leaders in the Taliban and al-Qaeda, and at least two wanted by the UN for war crimes that included the murder of thousands of Shiites.
Analysis:
This stunning number of aggressive moves on behalf of groups like al-Qaeda and other Islamists, and the capitulation of state actors like the Jordan( and now the USA) cannot be disputed. As I stated in my analysis on May 16, 2014:
“The capitulation of the Jordanian government could well embolden not only Libyan jihadists but Islamic radicals involved in kidnapping
for ransom and prisoner exchange across the region. We must remember that kidnappings of this type do not happen in a vacuum and
radical groups that utilize hostage-taking either for ransom or prisoner exchange have watched this release closely.
The release of Mohammed al-Drissi by the Jordanian government has been seen as a victory and will undoubtedly embolden radicals
who will increase their activities to kidnap diplomats and others they believe could be of value.”
Now, to exacerbate the threats facing American expatriates, not only has the United States has released five senior level Islamist commanders, the US has, for the first time, publically acquiesced to the demands of international terrorists. These actions, by default, have significantly raised the value of possible American hostages who Islamists believe can be traded for their brothers in arms in prisons around the world.
Herein lies the problem for US Citizens (and the staff of US companies abroad) who live in areas and locations with a moderate to higher risk of Islamic radicalism: Western governments already understand the reality of an energized jihadist movement and threats and liabilities of having their embassy staff exposed. Thus, these governments are lowering their diplomatic consular footprint by removing a number of embassy personnel not only in higher threat locations like Libya, Yemen and Afghanistan, but even the more moderate threat locations like Kenya and others locations to reduce the kidnapping exposure. This in turn places the remaining Westerners in these countries at a higher level of risk for targeted kidnapping attempts.
As I have mentioned before, Westerners in places like Libya, Yemen, Egypt, Iraq, Kenya, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and other hotspots are similar to fish in a barrel. When there are lots of fish in the barrel, the likelihood of smaller fish being targeted over the bigger ones is less likely. However, when governments withdraw or otherwise harden their diplomatic staff to kidnapping threats (thus remove the big fish from the barrel), other Americans, who would have been considered secondary targets (the smaller fish) move quickly up the targeting list. Thus: same size barrel; less fish.
Recommendations:
In light of the events of the past three months, the following recommendations are submitted for consideration:
Ø Assess New Risk. Conduct fresh risk assessments in locations with a known (but perhaps ignored) Islamist presence. This includes Western, Eastern, and Southern Africa, Eastern Europe, South Asia, and susceptible areas of the Pacific Rim. Remember, this threat is not limited to NAME or Central Asia. Take appropriate actions to protect personnel and empower the Gospel as necessary based on assessments.
Ø Collaborate. Review security best practices with other GCC co-located with our personnel. It is good to find out what others are doing (if anything) and both learn from friends who are doing well, and encourage others who are not.
Ø Get Connected. Connect with the OSAC (Overseas Security Advisory Council) Country Councils and Regional Councils in locations that are considered susceptible to new threats based on fresh risk assessments. Often I learn about emerging threats and security trends from other American companies and organizations operating in the same places our personnel are located.
Ø Provide Training. Organizations that decide to continue operating in spite of threats in these areas need to consider evaluating their duty of care to personnel in volatile areas. This included consideration for providing additional training on skills like hostile observation awareness, travel safety and security, and similar training programs that empower their personnel to lower their profile and increase their situational awareness.
Again, no one knows for sure what the future holds. However, Americans living in areas impacted by Islamic extremism need to prepare for a new “normal now” as the current security climate shows the real possibility of a strategic shift in the near future.