Subject: Re: DE-Sen, DE-AL: Castle (R) under 50%, Coons (D) still unknown
From: "Alexander Snyder-Mackler" <[email-masked]>
To: "Eric Schwerin" <[email-masked]>
Cc: "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>, "BB" <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2010 16:30:48 -0400

No #s on Beau or JRB. Obama 50/44/6, Carper at only 47/33/20, Jack at
50/32/18 -- a little below average for all three. Senator Ted checks in at
37/30/33.

Carney is up big on Rollins (48/32) and Uruquart (48/30), with most people
not knowing either R (unknowns are 57 and 65).

So this is the 3rd poll in a few weeks that has Coons in the 11-15 range,
and in all three he's in the mid-50s among Ds. That's the good news for him.
The bad news is that Castle continues to get 30% of Ds, Chris has to move
that # down; and he's getting beat 2:1 among Is. We said all along Beau
needed 85% of Dems and to keep the Is around 60-40.

And Chris' unknown is around 40%; Castle has him 3:1 in COH. That means if
Chris doesn't get up on TV soon Castle's gonna end up defining him for those
40 (and the 60 who say they have an opinion, but is probably a soft 60).

On Tue, Aug 10, 2010 at 1:56 PM, Eric Schwerin <[email-masked]
> wrote:

> DE-Sen, DE-AL: Castle (R) under 50%, Coons (D) still unknownby kos<http://kos.dailykos.com/>
> <http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstoryonly%2F2010%2F8%2F10%2F891639%2F-DE-Sen%2C-DE-AL%3A-Castle-%28R%29-under-50%2C-Coons-%28D%29-still-unknown&title=DE-Sen%2C%20DE-AL%3A%20Castle%20%28R%29%20under%2050%25%2C%20Coons%20%28D%29%20still%20unknown&topic=politics>
>  <http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/8/10/891639/-DE-Sen,-DE-AL:-Castle-%28R%29-under-50,-Coons-%28D%29-still-unknown#>
>   <http://www.reddit.com/submit?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstoryonly%2F2010%2F8%2F10%2F891639%2F-DE-Sen%2C-DE-AL%3A-Castle-%28R%29-under-50%2C-Coons-%28D%29-still-unknown&title=DE-Sen%2C%20DE-AL%3A%20Castle%20%28R%29%20under%2050%25%2C%20Coons%20%28D%29%20still%20unknown>[image:
> Share This]
> Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 08:16:03 AM PDT
> Feels good to be back in the game!
> Public Policy Polling<http://www.dailykos.com/images/user/3/DelawareResults.pdf> (PDF)
> for Daily Kos. 8/7-8. Registered voters. MoE 4% (No trendlines)
> *If the candidates for US Senate this fall were Republican Mike Castle and
> Democrat Chris Coons, who would you vote for?*
>                        *All   Dem   GOP   Ind*
> *Chris Coons* (D)         *35*    55    12    23
> *Mike Castle* (R)         *48*    30    75    50
> *Undecided*               *17*    15    13    27
> *Chris Coons* (D)         *44*    67    17    29
> *Christine O'Donnell* (R) *37*    16    67    40
> *Undecided*               *19*    16    15    31
> *Favorable/Unfavorable/Not Sure*
> *Coons*  31/31/39
> Dem    42/25
> GOP    19/40
> Ind    23/30
> *Castle* 51/32/18
> Dem    47/35
> GOP    60/25
> Ind    49/32
>
> O'Donnell is the local teabagger-supported fringe nut. And while she's been
> picking up some pretty big right-wing endorsements of late, fact is Delaware
> Republicans like Castle. He *should* win his primary easily, which is too
> bad. We'd be much better off facing the teabagger in the general election.
> But even Castle is looking less than invincible, hovering under the 50
> percent mark, and he *is* the de facto incumbent in this race, having been
> elected statewide in a succession of races since 1980, from Lt. Governor, to
> governor, to the House. And while incumbency doesn't appear to be too much
> of a drag on his name, this is a Democratic state, and his party ID is
> clearly having an effect. Given his popularity ratings, he should be
> enjoying a far bigger lead.
> Coons is unknown by 39 percent of the electorate and has plenty of room to
> grow. And while the political culture in Delaware prevents him from going
> hard after Castle (civility is important), the state has proven its
> willingness to oust long-time AND beloved incumbents like Sen. William Roth
> (of Roth-IRA fame). Roth had served as a statewide federal elected official
> starting in 1966 until being defeated by current Sen. Tom Carper in 2000
> despite being wildly popular -- a Mason-Dixon poll on July 10-12, 2000,
> found that Roth's favorable/unfavorable ratings were 53/16. Yet he still
> lost, in large part because of his age and health. Castle is currently 70
> years old.
> North Dakota and Arkansas are guaranteed Republican pickups this November.
> Delaware is clearly Republican favored, but this one hasn't been locked away
> just yet. Still, Coons won't start making serious headway until he improves
> his numbers among Democrats. In fact, Coons is getting just 59 percent of
> *liberal* voters, with 27 percent opting for Castle. That has to change.
> Meanwhile, the House race to replace Castle remains one of the Democrat's
> top pickup opportunities this year, with John Carney currently beating
> Republicans Michele Rollins (48-31) and Glen Urquhart (48-30).
> p.s. PPP polled respondents who had voted in at least one of the last three
> elections, so the standard is more than "registered voters", but less than
> "likely voters". Starting next week in our poll of Missouri, PPP will move
> to a "likely voter" screen.
> *Update*: Here is the raw data file<http://www.dailykos.com/images/user/3/DelawareRawData2.csv>.
> We'll eventually figure out a better way to deliver and display this data,
> but for now, here's a .csv file.
>
>
>
> Eric D. Schwerin
> Rosemont Seneca Partners, LLC
> 1010 Wisconsin Ave., NW
> Suite 705
> Washington, DC 20007
> (202) 333-1880
> [email-masked]
> *P** **Consider the environment before printing this email.*
>
>

-- 

Alexander Snyder-Mackler
(302) 598-867