Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Tea party flexes Iowa muscle - Romney quits Marriott board - GOP frets over Palin video - Christie: 'Wait and see' on 2012 field - Barbour meets S.C. brass - Herman Cain is in
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2011 06:08:49 -0500 (EST)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked] ) 

FIRST IN SCORE - TEA TIME IN IOWA: Almost half of likely Iowa caucus-goers say they're more inclined to vote for candidates who are endorsed by the tea party, according to a survey by the GOP firm Neighborhood Research, which tested a group of 566 "very likely" or "definite" caucus participants in a poll last week. Asked whether they would be "more or less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Tea Party groups" in a congressional primary, 44 percent of respondents said they would be more likely to vote for a tea partier. Just 10 percent said tea party endorsements would be a political turnoff. Among the group that says tea party endorsements would be a plus, 25 percent said they plan to support former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 16 percent picked former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and 13 percent picked former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, with 8 percent going to ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 6 percent to former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and 5 percent to Rep. Michele Bachmann. 

MORE: That's a higher level of support than Palin, Pawlenty and Bachmann get from the whole caucus-going sample. There - as Score reported Monday - Mitt Romney is the second-place candidate with 19 percent of the vote, Palin is at 11 percent, Pawlenty at 4 percent and Bachmann is at 2 percent. http://politi.co/g2GxoQ  

AND - BACKUP PLANS: If one or more leading GOP candidates don't run for president, Mike Huckabee is currently in the best position to pick up support in the form of second-choice votes. Twenty-six percent of Romney voters, 29 percent of Palin voters and 34 percent of Gingrich voters say Huckabee is the most appealing alternative to their favored candidate. Tim Pawlenty's voters say that Mitt Romney is their top second choice (26 percent) and Huckabee is runner-up in the runner-up category (22 percent). Huckabee's voters say that if the former Arkansas governor doesn't run, they'd be most inclined to support Palin (28 percent), followed by Romney (16 percent) and Gingrich (12 percent). 

RNC EXCLUSIVE - MEET ANN WAGNER: The former Missouri GOP chief will release a new biographical video this morning in the race for RNC chairman, describing herself as "the full package" of skills the committee needs. "Ann Wagner has managed everything from a state party to an embassy, to a family of five," says the narrator. "Ann knows that victory in 2012 is vital for our country's future and a full-funded, fully functioning RNC is essential for victory." Spotted in the file footage of Wagner-boosters: Former President George H.W. Bush http://bit.ly/ic1iLp  

As John Ensign forges ahead, Ed Rollins gives a thumbs-down and Kenny Chesney heads to caucus country, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign. 

LAST NIGHT IN ARIZONA - "Grief, energy mix as Obama honors victims, heroes" - The Arizona Republic's Shaun McKinnon: "President Barack Obama joined thousands of Arizonans at an emotional memorial service Wednesday, counseling them and the rest of the nation to remember the fallen in ways that heal instead of wound. Obama pleaded with Americans to set aside petty finger-pointing and instead raise the level of discourse to one 'worthy of those we have lost.' He eulogized the six people who died and praised the courage of the survivors, including U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, whose steady recovery seemed to buoy the grieving. ... [H]is demeanor, and the mood of the crowd, changed considerably when he revealed that, shortly after he visited the gravely wounded Giffords at University Medical Center, 'she opened her eyes for the first time.' 'She opened her eyes,' he said. 'She knows we're here and she knows we love her.'" http://bit.ly/hVIU41  

STATEMENT FROM GIFFORDS' OFFICE: "The outpouring of support from the people of Arizona and Americans across the country has been truly moving. ...The resolution before the House [Wednesday] was a further reflection of the best of America ... The efforts of the Congresswoman's colleagues have not stopped there - starting with Speaker Boehner and Leader Pelosi, staff and Members from both sides of the aisle have reached out in words and deeds to help our office in our time of need." 

ALREADY LAUNCHING - The Gabe Zimmerman Scholarship Fund, in honor of Giffords' fallen 30-year-old aide. Co-founder Alex Clemens: "This scholarship will honor Gabe's memory, his time at UCSC, and his commitment to leaving the world a better place than he found it." Facebook page here: http://on.fb.me/eg8D2p  

JMART'S TAKE - "Obama takes opportunity Palin missed" - "At sunrise in the east on Wednesday, Sarah Palin demonstrated that she has little interest-or capacity-in moving beyond her brand of grievance-based politics. And at sundown in the west, Barack Obama reminded even his critics of his ability to rally disparate Americans around a message of reconciliation. ... Many Republicans believe that it's mostly the media that is obsessed with Palin, and that there's little chance she could win the party's nomination. But if she does manage to, Wednesday illustrated why so many in the GOP fear that it would be disastrous." http://politi.co/gwAC2G  'BLOOD LIBEL' - THE REVIEWS ARE IN - Even before Obama's speech, Republican strategists told POLITICO's Andy Barr that Palin had misplayed her hand with an 8-minute video on the Arizona shootings that accused critics of a "blood libel" against her: "Palin was pitch perfect for much of her nearly 8-minute video statement ... [b]ut then she veered away from her statesman-like delivery ... 'She should have offered prayers and compassion for the victims and let it go at that,' said GOP strategist Ed Rollins, a veteran of presidential campaigns. 'This is not about her. A short statement would have been better than a video.' ... 'You have to see it through her eyes,' said Ari Fleischer, the former White House press secretary for former President George W. Bush. 'She has been accused in the mass media of being a accessory to murder.' But, he added, "She would have done much better if she had just ridden above all the nonsense and the politics of the shooting, including all the references of her map." http://politi.co/fniqau  

AND THEN THERE'S THIS - "Death Threats Against Sarah Palin at 'Unprecedented Level,' Aides Say" - ABC News: "An aide close to Sarah Palin says death threats and security threats have increased to an unprecedented level since the shooting in Arizona, and the former Alaska governor's team has been talking to security professionals." http://abcn.ws/h38ZWt  
CHRISTIE'S ADVICE: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie needled Palin in a conversation with the New York Times, telling the paper that the former vice presidential candidate needs to venture into more "minimally staged" settings. More: "He argued that unscripted, even adversarial exchanges with reporters and the public are essential to judging a candidate, and that if Sarah Palin continues to avoid them, 'she'll never be president.' ... When it was noted that Ms. Palin has preferred communicating with the public in ways she can control, Mr. Christie said that 'rightfully has been criticized.'" http://nyti.ms/f5XFt2  

MORE - ON THE FIELD - The rock-star Republican governor shared only slight hints about his judgment on the GOP's 2012 pack: "Mr. Christie said he does not know Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich or Ms. Palin, but he knows and likes Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels. He had especially warm words for the job being done by Mr. Daniels, the Indiana governor, who has not indicated whether he will run. 'I certainly don't have any favorite, anybody that I particularly support,' Mr. Christie said. 'I'm in the wait-and-see camp.'" http://nyti.ms/f5XFt2  

ROMNEY CUTS STRINGS: Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has stepped down from the board of Marriott International, leaving his advisory role at the hotel company ahead of an anticipated challenge to President Barack Obama. The Globe calls it "potentially another sign of his preparations for another presidential run." Said Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom: "He felt he no longer has the time to devote to the position." http://bit.ly/h9Bpno  

TODAY IN 2012 - GUESS WHO'S COMING TO D.C. Tim Pawlenty will be in Washington for a series of four public events, starting at 7:30 a.m. with a Leading Authorities "Conversations with Power" speech at the Newseum. At 12:30 p.m., Pawlenty addresses the National Press Club Luncheon, followed by a 5 p.m. book signing at the Barnes & Noble on 12th St. and a 6:30 p.m. "Pizza with Pawlenty" event at GW. 

SNEAK PEEK - MOVING ON UP: White-shoe GOP consulting firm OnMessage Inc. will name strategist Graham Shafer a partner this morning, following an election cycle in which Shafer helped elect Republicans from Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson to Florida Gov. Rick Scott. From the announcement: "Graham has been a huge part of our success at OnMessage Inc... [H]e contributed substantially to the takeover of the US House this past year in our work for the NRCC under Chairman Pete Sessions. ... His long resume includes stints as the RNC's Regional Political Director during the 2004 Bush campaign, campaign manager for the Tennessee Governor's race in 2002 and New Hampshire State Director for Steve Forbes Presidential run in 2000." 

FIRST MOVER - SORTA: Conservative activist and onetime pizza baron Herman Cain has moved to form a exploratory committee for a presidential campaign. The former CEO of Godfather's Pizza spoke to a skeptical CNN: "One challenge Cain will face is having virtually no name recognition ... Cain told CNN: 'People who say that Herman Cain has no chance of winning the nomination for the Republican Party or win the in presidency - I simply say thank you. Because all my life I have been in situations where I wasn't supposed to become VP of Pillsbury, I wasn't supposed to be able to turn Godfather's Pizza around.'" http://bit.ly/gy4aJL  

EARLY-STATE SIREN - Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour met with influential South Carolina Republicans during a visit to the state for newly sworn-in Gov. Nikki Haley's inauguration, Peter Hamby reports: "After Haley's swearing-in, Barbour convened something of a meet-and-greet with a handful of Republican legislators at the Palmetto Club in downtown Columbia, multiple GOP sources informed CNN. Among those planning to attend the closed-door meeting: David Wilkins, a former U.S. Ambassador and South Carolina House Speaker who remains a power broker in state GOP politics. ... Former South Carolina Attorney General Henry McMaster also attended the Barbour meeting." http://bit.ly/flwt9P  

ON BEYOND COLUMBIA: Newt Gingrich will travel to the almost-early primary state of Florida next month to address the Palm Beach County GOP's Lincoln Day Dinner. The event will take place in West Palm Beach on Feb. 24. http://bit.ly/hb5aEG  

AND - THE VIEW FROM TALLY - Newly installed Florida Democratic Party Chairman Rod Smith, a former state senator and lieutenant governor candidate, laid down this marker for the 2012 presidential cycle: "The road up Pennsylvania Avenue begins on I-75 and I-95 ... We're going to be the state, in my view, that decides the presidency." http://bit.ly/fcvdi7  

ENSIGN, UNDETERRED: Nevada's junior senator isn't sweating his plunging poll numbers, or the possibility of a tough primary challenge from Rep. Dean Heller. Or so he said yesterday, according to the AP: "Ensign says he's devoted to seeking re-election in 2012 ... Ensign, in remarks to reporters after speaking to a group of employers Wednesday in Reno, acknowledged he faces a 'very, very difficult' re-election campaign because of his affair with a former campaign aide. ... Heller, who spoke to the same group Wednesday, told reporters afterward that he's still considering challenging Ensign." http://bit.ly/fPZHMH  

DECODING DALLAS: The Morning News suggests that Mayor Tom Leppert is looking less and less like a candidate for reelection - and more and more like a man eyeing statewide office: "It is now all but certain that Mayor Tom Leppert will not run for re-election this year, setting off a scramble among business leaders and political operatives to find a candidate to replace him. City Council member Ron Natinsky, a reliable ally of Leppert with ties to the business community, has bolted out of the gate, letting it be known without making an official announcement that he is running for mayor. Leppert's ambition to run for the U.S. Senate is well-known and was stymied by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's decision to remain in office after her failed gubernatorial bid last year. It has been widely speculated that he is readying himself for a 2012 run for her seat." http://bit.ly/eY24sl  

CODA - TWEET OF THE DAY - From NBC's @carriedann: "Per DMRegister, Kenny Chesney to kick off his new 'Goin' Coastal' tour in Des Moines. #2012? #whynot #everyoneelseis" http://bit.ly/fR51qP  

Go to Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore

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