Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Pandora: NBC/WSJ poll: GOP still has the edge -- House Democrats retreating -- Harsh debates in Arkansas, Louisiana
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 15 Oct 2014 08:17:58 -0600

By Kyle Cheney

With James Hohmann and Tarini Parti

EXCLUSIVE - Mass. super PAC to call out Baker on gun issues: The Massachusetts Independent Expenditure PAC - backed by organized labor and the DGA - is dropping $1.2 million on an ad campaign that aims to paint Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker as out of step with the left-leaning state on gun-control issues. A week after he won the endorsement of gun control advocate and former mayor Michael Bloomberg, Baker is cast in the ad as a pawn of the "state NRA" - a reference to the Gun Owners Action League, an NRA affiliate. It also notes that he's refused to support a federal assault weapons ban. A male narrator refers to his positions as "a troubling Republican record." The spot,
 slated to run for at least a week: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba426ab7b77e62d50c22ba368d31975a41c4e295f4522afa229e56331ead852e 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba426ab7b77e62d50c22ba368d31975a41c4e295f4522afa229e56331ead852e .

-- Fun fact: The ad makes use of footage from Baker's 2010 run for governor, rather than his current campaign. We know this because when paused at the four-second mark, your Score writer - then a Boston-based political reporter - is visible in the front row of assembled media.

FIRST IN SCORE - DCCC rips Zeldin on entitlements: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee hits Republican Lee Zeldin in NY-01 in a spot featuring remarks from elderly voters rejecting what they characterize as Zeldin's willingness to privatize Social Security. "Lee Zeldin doesn't get it, and he shouldn't get our vote," one says. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba426ab7b77e62d5b0631f52cf923d60d4f942b6d63858c09ab4f1d7482ba11b 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba426ab7b77e62d5b0631f52cf923d60d4f942b6d63858c09ab4f1d7482ba11b 

-- Garcia raises $600,000: Florida Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia brought in more than $600,000 in the third quarter - the most the incumbent has ever raised in a quarter, his campaign told Campaign Pro. Garcia, who is in a tight race against Republican Carlos Curbelo, had $1.1 million cash on hand heading into October. In all, Garcia has raised $3.4 million this cycle. Curbelo has not yet announced his third quarter fundraising numbers.

OUT THIS MORNING - New NBC/Wall Street Journal poll: Likely voters support a GOP-controlled Congress by an insignificant, two-point margin, 46-44, according to the Hart Research Associates (D)/Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll. That compares to a 50-43 margin for the GOP in 2010. "Something weird will happen on election night," Bill McInturff, the Republican half of the NBC/WSJ polling team, told the Journal. "When you are sitting on top of an unstable, ticked-off electorate, there is a joker in the deck that ought to give us a little bit of caution." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba426ab7b77e62d5d28af724bd96b094373e7cce4e532b9262c52fe2d73f3687 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba426ab7b77e62d5d28af724bd96b094373e7cce4e532b9262c52fe2d73f3687 ; toplines: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba426ab7b77e62d553d0291f900e7379f482b8eccdc5471098fde528d7e53706 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba426ab7b77e62d553d0291f900e7379f482b8eccdc5471098fde528d7e53706 

As Dem ads disappear in Kentucky and President Barack Obama finds a political friend, here&#39;s POLITICO&#39;s Morning Score: your daily guide to the 2014 midterms.

Days until the election: 20

Thanks for joining us. We're eager for your news and feedback. Email us at 
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked]  or find us on Twitter at @
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba426ab7b77e62d5fac44b4f1d43d97da2635220beac748b2100d17ddd7923ec 
kyledcheney .

Want the latest on even more ads? Check out Morning Score P.M. Edition, a daily roundup of the latest television ads and developments on the campaign trail until Election Day. This includes new, exclusive TV airtime purchasing information - an added resource only for Campaign Pro subscribers.

SCORE INSIGHT: "Dems writing off Kentucky?" by Campaign Pro's James Hohmann: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Majority PAC are not currently on the air three weeks out in the Bluegrass State. We told Pro subscribers on Monday that this was coming: Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, the pro-Mitch McConnell Super PAC, has placed a $1-million-plus buy slamming Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes without being matched. Several media outlets suggested yesterday that national Democrats going dark meant they were throwing Grimes under the bus - even as she announced raising $4.9 million in the third quarter and having $4.4 million cash on hand. We still haven't heard
 McConnell's Q3 haul.

Democrats insist that Grimes still has a path to victory, pointing to her two-point lead in an outlier Bluegrass poll conducted by SurveyUSA last week and internal polling that shows her slightly ahead or within the margin of errror. The DSCC had spent relatively little on TV directly until recently anyway. Notably, the DSCC did not cancel any pre-planned reservations - they just didn't place new ones, likewise for SMP.

The fact that the DSCC independent expenditure arm put $1 million more into Georgia yesterday, specifically Atlanta broadcast, reflects the reality we've been telling you for months - that Michelle Nunn has a better chance of being a senator than Grimes, who is challenging one of the most powerful and connected Republicans in the country. David Perdue&#39;s outsourcing problems have only made the clearer. Democratic groups will undoubtedly continue polling and could decide to go back on the air if the circumstances merit.

Last night, DSCC executive director Guy Cecil pushed back on the D.C. narrative that Kentucky is slipping off the map by highlighting the continued investment in field programs. "Just signed a $300,000 wire for the KY Get Out The Vote operation for [Grimes]," he tweeted a little after 9 p.m. "That&#39;s an interesting view of 'pulling out of the race.'"

** Pandora reaches 70 million monthly voting-age listeners, listening on average over 2 hours per day. To learn how Pandora can connect your campaign with our passionate listeners call Sean Duggan, VP Advertising (917) 403-0259 or email 
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked]  **

STRATEGY SESSION - "House Dems in retreat," by Alex Isenstadt: "Three weeks out from an election that could give Republicans an historic majority, House Democrats are resorting to the painful strategy of retreat. Faced with a perilous midterm environment and a sudden gush of Republican cash, Democrats are shifting cash from blue-chip recruits to prop up teetering incumbents. The goal is to minimize losses and keep Republicans from their most dominant hold on the House since Harry Truman's presidency - potentially expelling Democrats from the speaker's chair for years to come."

"Democrats are now almost exclusively playing defense. Of the 28 districts seen as most seriously in contention, all but seven are held by Democrats. Republicans are virtually assured to expand their current 17-seat majority; strategists have pegged GOP gains at six to eight seats. But if Republicans can reach their goal of netting 11 seats, they will have their largest majority since 1949." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba426ab7b77e62d548d9106d375154afad5374d8818d58318a31cc2e15252ee2 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba426ab7b77e62d548d9106d375154afad5374d8818d58318a31cc2e15252ee2 

FIGHT NIGHT - Score's roundup of last night's debates:

AR-Sen: "Cotton, Pryor get rough in last debate: by POLITICO's Katie Glueck: "Rep. Tom Cotton and Sen. Mark Pryor took aggressive, sometimes-personal swipes at one another Tuesday during the final debate of the Arkansas Senate race, lobbing words such as 'Obama' and 'Harvard' as insults. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba426ab7b77e62d5de712cdcc58a795cb7ca0b4fce33ba3895197dc0125cd439 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba426ab7b77e62d5de712cdcc58a795cb7ca0b4fce33ba3895197dc0125cd439 

LA-Sen: "Landrieu raps Cassidy in Louisiana debate," by Campaign Pro's James Hohmann: "[Landrieu] tried hard to keep the focus trained on Cassidy as much as possible, attacking him almost nonstop from her opening through closing statements, while touting her 'clout' as chairwoman of the Senate Energy Committee ...One interesting moment during a lightning round at the end of the debate: Cassidy said he supports legalizing marijuana for medicinal purposes, while Landrieu doesn't." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba426ab7b77e62d5b6c5c5dc4ad3ae9b1e0339bb4e825d29c6b2c96a919a39b5 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba426ab7b77e62d5b6c5c5dc4ad3ae9b1e0339bb4e825d29c6b2c96a919a39b5 

OR-Sen: Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley and Republican Monica Wehby didn't agree on much, the Oregonian reports, except that each considers himself or herself hard-charging. It may be their only debate of the cycle: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba426ab7b77e62d5430cd5ed41211401c7dd55048ae735dbd74fa669fda6172f 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba426ab7b77e62d5430cd5ed41211401c7dd55048ae735dbd74fa669fda6172f 

WV-03: The Herald-Dispatch reports that Rep. Nick Rahall and Republican challenger Evan Jenkins attacked each other over positions on the future of coal: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba3eb1a017b1b2219187b2a17876163477c557bb9e8f2479db70b48aa33bb399 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba3eb1a017b1b2219187b2a17876163477c557bb9e8f2479db70b48aa33bb399 

AZ-02: It was a feisty contest between Democratic Rep. Ron Barber and Republican Martha McSally in the duo's final debate of the campaign, the Sierra Vista Herald reports: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba3eb1a017b1b221278675cf099d218ac087e0f42e9241cfd0e44a21ea1fba24 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba3eb1a017b1b221278675cf099d218ac087e0f42e9241cfd0e44a21ea1fba24 

ME-02: Democrat Emily Cain and Republican Bruce Poliquin were supposed to debate for a half-hour, but deep disagreements and constant rebuttals extended the timeframe, according to CentralMaine.com: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba3eb1a017b1b2213389500d90b7ada024feaaf748ca3a8e3bc9afdaad008920 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba3eb1a017b1b2213389500d90b7ada024feaaf748ca3a8e3bc9afdaad008920 

FL-26: A Spanish-language debate between Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia and Republican Carlos Curbelo focused mainly on character issues, the Miami Herald reports: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba3eb1a017b1b22196f54bebeaff3c58495fbc7efc845fa61912aeb83ecf9ff4 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba3eb1a017b1b22196f54bebeaff3c58495fbc7efc845fa61912aeb83ecf9ff4 

IL-Gov: The Chicago Sun-Times reports on a fierce debate between Gov. Pat Quinn, a Democrat, and his Republican challenger Bruce Rauner. The pair locked horns on the minimum wage and an anti-violence initiative that Quinn defends but Rauner claims has been corrupted by politics. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba3eb1a017b1b221b3e5a4f3bac3309a0f52b1827a3ea88fdb4801f00a2ea443 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba3eb1a017b1b221b3e5a4f3bac3309a0f52b1827a3ea88fdb4801f00a2ea443 

SC-Gov: Republican Gov. Nikki Haley fought off charges that she skirted ethics laws and fired back at Democratic challenger Vincent Sheheen that he rejected ethics reforms she helped push, The State reports: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba3eb1a017b1b2218c7b6bc9985e821a3b5d082ce54e8d1ca46e427271d1c40e 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba3eb1a017b1b2218c7b6bc9985e821a3b5d082ce54e8d1ca46e427271d1c40e 

COURT WATCH - "Appeals court unblocks Texas Voter ID law," By POLITICO's Josh Gerstein: The State of Texas can use its new voter ID law again in next&#39;s month&#39;s election, a federal appeals court ruled Tuesday, putting on hold an order a district court issued just last week barring enforcement of the law. 'Based primarily on the extremely fast-approaching election date, we stay the district court's judgment pending appeal,' 5th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals Judge Edith Clement wrote, in a ruling joined by Judge Catharina Haynes." The ruling: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba3eb1a017b1b221071bbbe7937254e615b790fccfd595fdcdb234a73e80d6c8 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba3eb1a017b1b221071bbbe7937254e615b790fccfd595fdcdb234a73e80d6c8 ; the story: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba3eb1a017b1b221578e89a65e633a09f6a2cba75cc813da4bc463ca86ccf6cf 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba3eb1a017b1b221578e89a65e633a09f6a2cba75cc813da4bc463ca86ccf6cf 

OBAMA ON THE TRAIL - "Obama to campaign for Brown, Quinn," by POLITICO's Edward-Isaac Dovere: "President Barack Obama will hit the road Sunday in two states on behalf of two Democratic gubernatorial hopefuls: in Maryland for Anthony Brown and in Illinois for Pat Quinn. The president will start in Upper Marlboro, Md., where he'll do a campaign event with Brown, currently the lieutenant governor who, if he wins in November, would be the only African-American governor in the country next year ... Obama will then fly Sunday back home to Chicago, where he kicked off his final month of midterm campaigning two weeks ago, attending another event for Quinn." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba3eb1a017b1b2219500dd7fcfb881bbcb1169fad743852cc2ca1e77fc8f6c73 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba3eb1a017b1b2219500dd7fcfb881bbcb1169fad743852cc2ca1e77fc8f6c73 

"One Democrat who isn't avoiding Obama," by POLITICO's Jennifer Epstein: "Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy is counting on President Barack Obama to help him win, and Obama is counting on Malloy to give him a warm welcome. This fall, even as other Democrats are distancing themselves from the unpopular president, Malloy is embracing him. The first-term governor isn't afraid to be linked to the president's policies ... With polls tight and his own unfavorable ratings just as high as Obama's, Malloy is hoping that the president still has real pull where it matters - among the Democratic base, especially the large concentrations of African-Americans in cities such as Bridgeport, the state's most
 populous, where Wednesday's rally will take place. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba3eb1a017b1b221e54cc72e0e31335bd8f31b4298f9cedf4444cbbbc8cc2562 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4408be2fb0bfb59c7fb54411e73b593c890d1777230d34de4aeac2b3a7fc998a  

Daybook: Sen. Rob Portman is on the trail with Republican Scott Brown today in New Hampshire. Brown, seeking to return to the Senate from New Hampshire, will join Portman, an Ohio Republican, at the Bean Towne Coffee Shop at 10:15 a.m.

2016 WATCH - "Bush: Wife 'supportive' of 2016 bid," by POLITICO's Maggie Haberman: "Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush says his wife, Columba, who has been repeatedly described as skeptical of him pursuing the presidency in 2016, is 'supportive' of the possibility. Bush made the comment in an interview with The Associated Press as he campaigned for his son, George P. Bush, who is running for land commissioner in Texas." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4408be2fb0bfb59cb06804a692d47fb8b7dde3b5e452ddc6b7472c73c261b438 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4408be2fb0bfb59cb06804a692d47fb8b7dde3b5e452ddc6b7472c73c261b438 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "This is more of the baloney that you throw out." - Bruce Rauner, Republican nominee for governor in Illinois, on Gov. Pat Quinn's suggestion that Rauner once berated and threatened a female employee.

LAST CALL FOR "WOMEN WHO RULE" AWARDS - Know a woman with entrepreneurial spirit in media, technology or business? Nominate her today for the "Women Who Rule" awards from POLITICO, Google and the Tory Burch Foundation. Entries due Friday:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4408be2fb0bfb59cbf4bfc9360c9b2b6438b4adc33530097562b026ae8395ff3 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4408be2fb0bfb59cbf4bfc9360c9b2b6438b4adc33530097562b026ae8395ff3 .

** While broadcast TV and Radio audiences continue to fragment and decline, internet radio listenership has exploded since the last mid-term election cycle. Pandora now reaches 70 million US voting age listeners per month. We offer precision-based targeting solutions that include age, gender, zip code, and more through premium video, audio, and display placements across all devices and platforms.

Pandora offers high impact GOTV solutions for local to statewide races to help campaigns mobilize voters. Our monthly audience reach (Adult 18+ listeners):

Florida: 4.8M

Illinois: 3.0M

Michigan: 2.2M

North Carolina: 2.2M

Massachusetts: 1.5M

Kansas: 690K

Arkansas: 590K

For more info about how we can help your campaign win contact Sean Duggan, VP Advertising, (917) 403-0259 or 
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked]  **

Go to POLITICO Morning Score Now >> http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4408be2fb0bfb59c31975665564fae457ac0501ad64f64194cdac259df730e89

Go to this edition >> http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4408be2fb0bfb59cd5de00cd64b5b3dcc7d9c5aba86a6b854af3ef917926a3a4

=================================

2014 POLITICO, LLC

POLITICO Morning Score.

To unsubscribe, http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4408be2fb0bfb59c56bfe3b61cd5ec962c271f8717d5c44335f600072012ebbc

=================================