Subject: Fwd: Public Opinion Research Points to Path Forward for Reconciliation in Iraq
From: "Ken Wollack" <[email-masked]>
To: "Alan Solomont" <[email-masked]>, "Bleich, Jeffrey" <[email-masked]>, "delanolewis" <[email-masked]>, "Governor James J. Blanchard" <[email-masked]>, "jerry mcgowan" <[email-masked]>, "Kathryn hall" <[email-masked]>, "Laurie Fulton" <[email-masked]>, "Louis Susman" <[email-masked]>, "Mark H. Gitenstein" <[email-masked]>, "philip. murphy" <[email-masked]>, "richard celeste" <[email-masked]>, <[email-masked]>, <[email-masked]>, <[email-masked]>, "AM CHAVEZ" <[email-masked]>, "Br
Date: Fri, 26 Feb 2016 11:59:27 -0500

I thought you would be interested in the following summary of NDI's latest
public opinion research in Iraq.

With best regards,

Ken

Kenneth Wollack
President
National Democratic Institute
455 Massachusetts Ave., NW, 8th Floor
Washington, DC 20001
202-728-5500 (Tel)
888-875-2887 (Fax)
email: [email-masked]
website: www.ndi.org

PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH POINTS TO PATH FORWARD FOR IRAQ RECONCILIATION
<https://contribute.ndi.org/sites/all/modules/civicrm/extern/url.php?u=20434&qid=1464543>

NDI released new public opinion research, which reveals a clear path
forward for Iraq’s road to reconciliation. The research, which is the
result of 22 in-depth interviews
<https://contribute.ndi.org/sites/all/modules/civicrm/extern/url.php?u=20436&qid=1464543>
with
Iraqi leaders and a nationwide survey of 2,200 citizens
<https://contribute.ndi.org/sites/all/modules/civicrm/extern/url.php?u=20436&qid=1464543>
conducted
between December 12, 2015 and January 8, 2016, points to the need for
Iraq’s politicians and governing institutions to work together to forge a
shared vision for the country. Iraqis largely agree on four areas of
potential collaboration across political and sectarian divides, including
adopting an achievable plan to fight corruption, ensuring a fair judicial
process, strengthening the economy, and ending sectarian quotas for
government positions and jobs.

NDI representatives discuss key findings from its latest round of opinion
research with women Members of the Iraqi Parliament and political actors at
its concluding conference on women's role in the national reconciliation
process.

More than 90 percent of respondents judged reconciliation to be somewhat or
very important to the future of the country. They prioritized the need to
promote reconciliation among political parties and leaders, and saw it as a
bigger obstacle than both falling oil prices and the fight against Da’esh
(also known as the Islamic State, ISIS or ISIL). “The results are
definitive: reconciliation can be advanced if leaders develop policies that
represent all of Iraq’s citizens,” NDI’s Senior Resident Country Director
Lisa McLean said. “This research can help point the way forward.”

<https://www.ndi.org/files/NDI_Poll_A_Challenging_Path_Toward_Reconciliation_in_Iraq.jpg>
A strong majority of Iraqis say reconciliation is important. View
interactive infographic
<https://contribute.ndi.org/sites/all/modules/civicrm/extern/url.php?u=20439&qid=1464543>

Despite numerous reconciliation attempts at both party and tribal levels,
sectarian conflict and strife persist. Inclusive governance and consensus
building are essential elements of a successful reconciliation process, and
Iraq’s leaders require evidence-based research to move this long-delayed
process forward. Targeted consultations by NDI staff on the research
findings help to inform decision-makers and enhance their abilities to
craft a strategic vision for reconciliation. These steps strengthen the
government of Iraq’s ability to respond to the needs of the Iraqi people
both centrally and at the local level.

Concerns about progress on key issues, such as security, corruption,
unemployment, and services, have driven public opinion to new lows. A mere
10 percent of respondents thought the country was headed in the right
direction -- a sentiment shared in the autonomous Kurdish region, where
only 32 percent of respondents thought Kurdistan was headed in the right
direction. In part, increased pessimism is driven by concerns among Iraq’s
minority Shiite community that they are being marginalized by the current
government. But citizens from across the spectrum worried about worsening
sectarianism, deteriorating relations between political blocs, and the
ever-tenuous relationship between Erbil — the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan —
and Baghdad.

NDI’s research revealed the prominent role that identity plays in attitudes
towards reconciliation. Those that identify first as Iraqis —
overwhelmingly Sunnis and Shia — were far more open to reconciliation
measures. An undercurrent of societal tensions, however, poses a
significant challenge to reconciliation efforts. A majority of Kurds and
Sunnis did not feel fairly treated by society and the government, and 39
percent of Sunnis reported having personally experienced discrimination.
Although Iraqis were split by religious sect about which political figures
divide or unite the country, a plurality agreed that both Iraqi politicians
and the international community are contributing to the further division of
the country.

[image: Graph: Iraqis agree on four areas of potential collaboration, which
can be used to push the reconciliation process forward.]
<https://www.ndi.org/files/NDI_Poll_A_Challenging_Path_Toward_Reconciliation_in_Iraq2.jpg>
Iraqis agree on four areas of potential collaboration, which can be used to
push the reconciliation process forward. View interactive infographic
<https://contribute.ndi.org/sites/all/modules/civicrm/extern/url.php?u=20439&qid=1464543>

With 47 percent of respondents claiming that Iraq is a mostly divided
country, the need to link issue-based concerns to reconciliation efforts is
vital — and NDI’s research points to broad areas of consensus. Iraqis
overwhelmingly identified several key reforms as the most effective
mechanisms to push reconciliation forward: adopting an achievable plan to
fight corruption effectively (92 percent); ensuring a fair judicial process
(89 percent); strengthening the economy (88 percent); and ending sectarian
quotas for government positions and jobs (88 percent).

According to NDI’s research, a clear reconciliation plan should focus on
core points including:

   - forging a process that is driven by Iraqis for Iraqis;
   - developing clear, concise messages and milestones that define a plan
   and is enshrined in the notion of “One Iraq” or a “United Iraq;”
   - engaging the public, addressing the frustrations of protestors, and
   focusing on Iraq’s political actors; and
   - developing separate strategies to address Shia-Sunni and Arab-Kurd
   issues.

Although Iraqis share a strong desire for reconciliation, the road ahead
will be fraught with challenges. The ultimate success of any reconciliation
process is tied to continued progress through transparency and outreach to
citizens by political institutions, and the building of political will to
create more inclusive and responsive governing bodies.

NDI’s research was conducted in partnership with Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Research and funded by the U.K. Foreign Commonwealth Office.

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