Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Kemp crushes Cagle in GA-GOV GOP runoff — Dems pressure Heller on SCOTUS — Lamb up double-digits over Rothfus in PA-17 in new poll
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 25 Jul 2018 08:03:03 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

By Zach Montellaro | 07/25/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
It was over pretty shortly after it began: Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp crushed Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle in the Republican gubernatorial runoff. The AP called the race a little over an hour and a half after polls closed, when Kemp had 68 percent of the vote to Cagle's 32 percent with about a third of precincts reporting in. 
 
Cagle had a brutal two months, with Kemp's campaign releasing a steady drip of news out of a secret recording that showed Cagle seemingly insulting the GOP primary electorate. Kemp also secured President Donald Trump's endorsement, which brought Vice President Mike Pence to the state to rally on his behalf. 
 
Now, Kemp will face off against Democrat Stacey Abrams in November. Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss with a preview of that race: "The contest will put before Georgia voters one the sharpest contrasts of any major campaign in the country this fall. Kemp has campaigned as a resolute supporter of Trump and his policies and attitudes, saying in campaign ads that he has a big pickup truck 'just in case I need to round up criminal illegals.' Kemp also showcased his support for gun rights in ads, in which he handled a shotgun while sitting next to a prospective date for one of his daughters. ...
 
"Abrams, the former state House minority leader who would be the nation's first black female governor if elected, has campaigned on spending more on education and other services, and on expanding voting rights - an issue that has already brought her and Kemp into conflict. Abrams has said her path to victory relies on bringing Georgia residents who don't typically vote to the ballot box this November, and her nonprofit has worked to register large numbers of voters in the past. But Kemp is a proponent of voter ID laws criticized by Abrams".
 
The two Democratic runoffs in Georgia's Sixth and Seventh Districts were much tighter races. In the Sixth District, gun control activist Lucy McBath beat businessman Andy Kim for the right to face GOP Rep. Karen Handel. In the Seventh District, Carolyn Bourdeaux, a professor at Georgia State, narrowly beats out businessman David Kim and will face GOP Rep. Rob Woodall in November.
 
Good Wednesday morning. Please, no more "lordy, there's tapes" jokes on Twitter. As always, you can email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @MaggieSeverns.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 104.
 
Upcoming election dates - Aug. 2: Tennessee primaries. - Aug. 7: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington primaries.
 
LAMB LEADS IN NEW PA-17 POLL - In the only member-on-member race this year, Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb has a big, double-digit lead over GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus in a new Monmouth University poll. In the survey of all potential voters, Lamb is up 51 percent to 39 percent for Rothfus. A historical midterm model has Lamb up 53 percent to 40 percent while a turnout surge model has the Democrat up 54 percent to 39 percent. More on the poll from Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider here.
 
SCOTUS BATTLES - Democrats are hoping to flip the script on the battle over Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court and put Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) on the defensive. Campaign Pro's James Arkin and Burgess Everett: "Beating Heller is central to Democratic hopes of taking back the Senate in the future. And allies of Heller's opponent, first-term Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen, say the high court vacancy is already helping. 'We're seeing this nomination supercharge her campaign,' said Ilyse Hogue, president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, which is backing Rosen and spending heavily to influence the Supreme Court nomination fight. ...
 
"Democrats say Heller's quick endorsement of Kavanaugh is the linchpin of their strategy to portray him as a Trump yes-man this fall. Heller was long considered a pragmatic conservative who supported comprehensive immigration reform and even challenged the president on repealing Obamacare. But Democrats 'find no evidence of that anymore,' said Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.)."
 
ON THE AIRWAVES - The NRCC is up in the OH-12 special election with a new ad that calls Democrat Danny O'Connor an "extreme liberal." "On Aug. 7, don't take Ohio backwards with liberal Danny O'Connor," the TV ad's narrator says. "O'Connor endorsed failed Gov. Ted Strickland, who left Ohio with an $8 billion budget hole and a 'rainy day' fund of only 89 cents, while Ohio was near the bottom of job creation." According to Elena, "the NRCC recently added another $250,000 to its spending in the district."
 
- Restoration PAC launched a new ad promoting Kevin Nicholson in the Wisconsin GOP Senate primary. Campaign Pro's James Arkin: The ad "emphasizes Nicholson's outsider campaign and military background. Restoration PAC, which is funded primarily by megadonor Richard Uihlein, is spending $750,000 to run the ad through the primary. The PAC has spent more than $4 million to boost Nicholson in the race so far."
 
'SCAM PAC' - The Foundation for Accountability and Civic Trust, a conservative watchdog, filed a FEC complaint against a "scam PAC" run by a former GOP congressional candidate. Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns: The complaint "concerns the Keeping America in Republican Control PAC, which says on its website that it will 'help keep, support, re-elect Republicans in control both in the state and federal government.' ... But KAIRC PAC doesn't appear to be registered with the Federal Election Commission, the FACT complaint says, among several other potential violations of election law."
 
PROVING YOUR BONA FIDES - In the contentious Arizona GOP Senate primary, Rep. Martha McSally has had to fend off charges from her opponents that she is not sufficiently conservative. To do that, she's playing up her connection to President Donald Trump, even though it threatens her moderate reputation and could hurt her in November. The Arizona Republic's Yvonne Wingett Sanchez: "McSally bragged that she's been invited to the White House for exclusive movie screenings, has taken phone calls from Trump and his staff, and is leading on issues at the top of his agenda, namely border security. She even attempts an impression of Trump's New York accent. ... McSally has been a faithful House
 member in Arizona's delegation to the Trump agenda. Since Trump's presidency began, she has sided with the president 83 of 85 times."
 
BIG MONEY - Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is filling up the coffers of the NRSC. The Fort Worth Star-Telegram's Andrea Drusch: "He's given $9.39 million to Republicans' Senate campaign arm - playing an 'indispensable' role in the committee's fundraising, according to its leadership. Cornyn's also contributed nearly $100,000 to the campaigns of individual GOP lawmakers and candidates so far this cycle, according to data provided to the Star-Telegram."
 
CASH TRACK - Businesses associated with Sen. Claire McCaskill's husband have seen over $100 million in federal subsidies since he took office. The Kansas City Star's Kelsey Ryan and Lindsay Wise: The businesses "have been awarded more than $131 million in federal subsidies since the Missouri Democrat took office in 2007, an analysis by The Kansas City Star found. Joseph Shepard's personal income from his investments in those businesses has grown exponentially during his wife's two terms in the Senate. The federal payments don't go directly into Shepard's pocket. Most of the money goes toward operating costs for government-subsidized housing projects Shepard is invested in. Those companies
 then distribute the profits to Shepard and other investors."
 
SCOTT TO SKIP TRUMP RALLY - The president holds a rally in Tampa on Tuesday, but not everyone on the Florida GOP ticket will join him. POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo reports that Gov. Rick Scott, who is running for Senate, won't join Trump and gubernatorial candidate Rep. Ron DeSantis at the rally. Scott has a fundraiser that night in Clearwater, but will join the president earlier in the day at an event at a local high school.
 
DARK MONEY UPDATE - Montana has long been leading the charge for transparency in money in politics. Now, Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock (a dark horse 2020 candidate), is suing the Trump administration for the IRS's decision to no longer require most nonprofits to name big donors. The New York Times' Alex Burns: "[I]n a lawsuit filed on Tuesday in Federal District Court in Montana, Mr. Bullock and his administration alleged that the Trump administration had flouted proper government process in eliminating the disclosure requirements. The suit asked the court to issue a judgment voiding the new IRS policy. ... 'The goal of the litigation is to make sure that dark money and foreign money isn't
 flowing into our elections unchecked,' Mr. Bullock said, accusing the Trump administration of 'playing fast and loose with Treasury procedures.'"
 
FIRST IN SCORE - MIDTERM MESSAGING - The DSCC is calling health care the "defining issue of 2018" in a new memo. "Voters don't like the Republicans' agenda, trust Democrats' approach more, and are preparing to hold every GOP Senate candidate accountable," the DSCC argues, citing public polls.
 
HE'S BACK (KINDA) - Don Blankenship, a thorn in the side of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, said on Monday he has the signatures to appear on the ballot in the West Virginia Senate race on the Constitution Party line. But because of the state's "sore loser" law, which prevents candidates who lost in a primary from running on another line in November, he has several hurdles before he actually appears on the ballot. Blankenship's campaign said they expect his filing won't be certified but that he "will vigorously challenge the denial through all legal means necessary," comparing the law to "what the Communist or Nazi party would do". Joe Manchin, who would only be helped by
 Blankenship appearing on the ballot, told reporters that he thinks Blankenship has a "valid case" and that "if you get 6,000 [people] that want you on the ballot, then he exercised his right and did what he was supposed to do within the letter of the law," via NBC News' Ben Kamisar. Republican state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey issued a statement saying "voters won't be distracted by efforts to divert attention away from" Manchin's record.
 
FIRST IN SCORE - ENDORSEMENT CORNER - The Progressive Change Campaign Committee is endorsing Ilhan Omar (MN-5) and Andy Levin (MI-9) "because they are two strong Midwestern fighters for working families," PCCC co-founder Stephanie Taylor said. "We're seeing a populist wave sweeping the nation, and Andy Levin and Ilhan Omar are part of that movement."
 
THE CENSUS QUESTION - Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross actively pushed to add a question about citizenship to the census much earlier than he told Congress. The Washington Post's Tara Bahrampour: "The documents, released as part of a multistate lawsuit against the addition of the question, also reveal deeper involvement of senior administration officials in pushing for the question than earlier indicated, and attempts to drum up support from experts in the face of overwhelming criticism from former Census Bureau directors and the bureau's own chief statistician. In a May 2, 2017, email to Earl Comstock, director of the department's Office of Policy and Strategic Planning, Ross wrote: 'I am
 mystified why nothing have [sic] been done in response to my months old request that we include the citizenship question. Why not?'"
 
VEEP ON THE TRAIL - Vice President Mike Pence will be in Grand Forks, N.D., today to "attend a fundraiser at the Hilton Garden Inn, and then he will return to the Air Force base to address base personnel," per the Grand Forks Herald's Emily Allen. Pence will also be in Montana today.
 
CORRECTION: The July 24 edition of Morning Score misstated the name of former White House legislative affairs director Marc Short's firm. It is GuidePost Strategies.
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "They're going to call me a socialist anyway. ... You might as well come out so we can all have a good time," James Thompson, a candidate in KS-04, relaying what he said to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to The Washington Post.
 
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