Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by AARP: Koch network publicly snubs Cramer — Pence campaigns for Balderson in OH-12 — DeSantis goes up with one of the most pro-Trump ads this cycle
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 31 Jul 2018 08:01:58 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 07/31/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
DISPATCHES FROM THE KOCH CONFAB - Some notable Republican Senate candidates were snubbed by the Koch network. Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns' latest from Colorado Springs: "The powerful Koch political network won't help the Republican nominee in a crucial Senate race less than 100 days before the midterm elections, saying Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) doesn't do enough to further the Koch's policy issues to warrant their help. ... Standing in front of a 20-foot high photo of Cramer projected on a screen, Americans for Prosperity President Tim Phillips told hundreds of top conservative donors that Cramer is 'inconsistent' on a range of other issues that are key to the Koch network, such as
 reducing government spending and supporting free trade. ...
 
"But this year, Cramer is not the only Republican candidate the Koch network is considering leaving behind. The network is currently only active in four Senate races, a network official said Monday: Wisconsin, Missouri, Tennessee and Florida. And during the weekend retreat held in Colorado Springs, donors briefed on the network's plans were given a handout on candidates the network is supporting that omitted three Republican senate candidates in particular from its list: Cramer, Indiana Senate nominee Mike Braun and incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.). ...
 
"Phillips did hint that the door might be open for Cramer, if he were willing to change his policy platform, however: 'Give Kevin Cramer a call - urge him to step up and lead.'"
 
- The takeaways for Cramer: First, take the Koch network at its word when it says it's miffed that a candidate isn't toeing the line on certain issues. The network wants to send a message that it expects some level of fealty from candidates who want backup on the airwaves. But a second point from my Campaign Pro compatriot James Arkin: The Kochs can make a symbolic stand on Cramer, without seriously hurting his chances. North Dakota is "a very cheap advertising state [with a] small pool of voters. Of all GOPers in Senate races this year, he might need Koch groups help the least. Which could be the point," James points out. And while the Koch network said it'd be willing to work with some
 Democrats, does anyone seriously believe it would direct any meaningful amount of cash to Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp's reelection effort? Color us skeptical. The snub is still meaningful, but it is happening in an environment where other groups can fairly effectively minimize damage.
 
But what to make of Heller and Braun? Here, the motives are a little less clear. It could just be a prioritization of resources. As an incumbent, Heller can certainly expect a lot of other groups to back him (case in point, One Nation is going up with a $1 million ad campaign in the state praising him for his work with veterans), even if the Koch network doesn't. And recall that the AFP signaled in April that it wasn't thrilled with Heller, the most endangered Senate Republican, so the move isn't too surprising. But are the latest moves a sign that the Koch network thinks those races are already lost? Or are there announcements coming down the pike? Only time will tell.
 
Good Tuesday morning. As always, you can email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @MaggieSeverns.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 98.
 
Upcoming election dates - Aug. 2: Tennessee primaries. - Aug. 7: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington primaries.
 
DEEP DIVE - How much does an individual candidate matter in a potential wave? Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.) will find out, as he tries to fend off Democratic energy in Florida's 26th District. McClatchy's Katie Glueck: "[A] number of prominent Democrats in the region, especially donors, continue to back Curbelo even as national Democrats ooze confidence about the seat. It's evidence that, for all of the environmental factors working against Curbelo, [likely Democratic challenger Debbie] Mucarsel-Powell's bid to cast him as just another rank-and-file Republican is meeting some skepticism. 'I'm a Democrat, but I want to leave some rational people in the Republican Party to talk to other
 Republicans, and he does that,' said Ira Leesfield, a major Democratic donor who has also donated to Curbelo."
 
THE MAP - Republican senators are having problems legislating with their razor-thin majority, but that could change if they pick up a seat or two come November, as they are still hoping will happen. POLITICO's Burgess Everett: "Despite a potential Democratic wave in the House, the battle for the Senate has become trench warfare in just a handful of states. Republicans believe their best shots at picking up seats now come down to a trio of Democratic incumbents: Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Joe Donnelly of Indiana. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has concentrated its fall reservations in those states and in defending Heller and Arizona's
 Republican open seat. Florida Gov. Rick Scott is also mounting a serious challenge to Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, while former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) is running a surprisingly strong campaign against Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) for that state's open GOP seat."
 
SPECIAL ELECTION WATCH - Vice President Mike Pence hit the trail for Republican Troy Balderson in the special election in Ohio's 12th District. Cleveland.com's Jeremy Pelzer: "The vice president's appearance in GOP-friendly Licking County illustrates both the competitiveness and the importance given to the Aug. 7 special election. ... 'Ohio has a chance here to make a difference in the life of the nation,' the vice president said to a crowd of about 400 people. The relatively sparse polling that's been done in the race indicates that there are few swing voters in the district. ... Rather, political experts predict the race will be determined by which side can turn out more support during a
 rare early August election that's not on many voters' radar."
 
MIDTERM MESSAGING - Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who could face a tough general election battle against Democratic state schools superintendent Tony Evers, has been promoting his education record. POLITICO Pro's Caitlin Emma and Daniel Strauss: "Walker became a conservative icon by breaking the teachers union in Wisconsin. ... Rather than run from the controversy that nearly shut down Wisconsin state government in 2011, Walker is embracing it. He insists that battling the teachers unions, giving school districts more control over their staff and balancing the state budget have made schools better. ... It's a highly risky strategy ... [and Walker is now] trailing Evers in head-to-head polls
 back in Wisconsin. The Democratic primary field remains divided, with eight candidates competing for the nomination, but most public polling has shown Evers in the lead. ... Walker is being corralled into focusing on education and defending his record, Evers told POLITICO."
 
STRANGE BEDFELLOWS - With business groups becoming increasingly frustrated with the Trump administration over trade and immigration, some are taking a second look at centrist Democrats. POLITICO's Lorraine Woellert and Marianne LeVine: "The American Bankers Association this month began airing ads in support of candidates for the first time, including Democrats Sen. Jon Tester of Montana and Rep. Lou Correa of California. The International Franchise Association has more than doubled its support to Democrats this cycle, with 27 percent of its donations going to centrists in the party. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which leans heavily Republican, endorsed Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer
 (D-N.J.). ... 'Republicans aren't the only people who have great ideas for business,' International Franchise Association President Robert Cresanti said. 'We really need more members of Congress that are in the middle and are willing to listen to both sides.'"
 
** Presented by AARP: There's only one true deciding factor in this year's elections: 50-plus voters. They won't be ignored and their votes are up for grabs. Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers, and prescription drug costs are all on the line-so you can be sure they'll be voting in record numbers. 
aarp.org/vote **
 
BIGFOOT ENERGY - This political story that seems straight out of The Onion might just sum up the 2018 cycle. Leslie Cockburn, the Democrat running in Virginia's 5th District, tweeted Sunday night that her GOP opponent, Denver Riggleman "has been exposed as a devotee of Bigfoot erotica," while linking to an Instagram post purportedly from Riggleman for a cover of a book called "Mating Habits of Bigfoot." (Yes, really.) On Monday, Riggleman gave an interview to The Daily Beast's Gideon Resnick, saying Cockburn got it all wrong: "For starters, he said he did not draw the pictures and they're the result of years-long joking with his military buddies. More to the point, though, he wasn't into
 Bigfoot erotica at all. He was merely involved in a years-long study into why people believed that the giant furry creature exists and, as part of that study, he is finishing a book about those beliefs that will be done in parody form akin to the style of 'Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy.' ... He said that when people read the book, they will think Cockburn's campaign was 'maybe insane' for portraying it as erotic fiction." CRTV also released a jokey video with Riggleman on the topic.
 
FIRST IN SCORE - ON THE AIRWAVES - Senate Majority PAC is releasing a new ad in North Dakota attacking Cramer for his vote to repeal country-of-origin labeling for beef and pork. The ad features a man wearing a cowboy hat standing in a field with three steaks, with a narrator saying you can't tell the difference between the one that's North Dakota beef and the two that aren't. SMP is spending $300,000 on the ad. 
 
DOWN IN FLORIDA - Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) is up with a new ad that explicitly ties him to Trump, more so than any other ad we've seen this cycle. The ad, which is narrated by DeSantis' wife, Casey, says DeSantis is a family man, cut in between DeSantis doing Trump-related things, like reading "The Art of the Deal" to one of his children and building a wall out of blocks with another child. In that vein, check out The New York Times' Jonathan Martin on how DeSantis' ties to Trump is upending Adam Putnam's long-held plans to win the GOP nomination.
 
- DeSantis has also recently taken to antagonizing Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "After the pair engaged in a recent back-and-forth over DeSantis' reference to her as a 'girl,' the Florida Republican's campaign promptly emailed supporters that he was being 'attacked by a socialist.' His campaign liked what it saw in the response. The 'click through rate' for DeSantis' Ocasio-Cortez email Thursday was about five times higher than usual, or 23 percent, said Brad Herold, a DeSantis spokesman, adding it raised about $10,000 in hard money in less than 24 hours."
 
- A new poll has Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) and GOP Gov. Rick Scott locked in a tight Senate race. The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey has Scott up 47 to 44 percent. POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker said he wouldn't be shocked if the race got tighter and that it remains too close to call on Election 
 
Day. 'It's going to be a slugfest,' Coker said. 'Nelson is hoping for a blue wave, and Scott is counting on Trump motivating his base of voters. Rick Scott has yet to have a landslide win. So I don't anticipate him winning by a big amount if he does win.'"
 
ANOTHER ENDANGERED INCUMBENT? - Democrat Ayanna Pressley picked up a big endorsement in her battle to unseat Democratic Rep. Mike Capuano in Massachusetts' 7th District: state Attorney General Maura Healey, via The Boston Globe's James Pindell.
 
RETOOLING THE MESSAGE - Some anti-abortion activists are trying to change their campaign tactics. BuzzFeed News' Ema O'Connor: The goal of the Pro-Life Women's Conference "was to start a rebranding of the anti-abortion community, moving away from fire and brimstone, large pictures of fake bloody fetuses, and the scare tactics of the old guard. Instead, conference organizers are taking a page from the mainstream feminist and abortion rights movements, aiming to expand the anti-abortion movement through a woman-centered, inclusive approach to branding and activism."
 
REMEMBERING RON DELLUMS - Ron Dellums, the former congressman and mayor of Oakland, died Monday. SFGate's Rachel Swan: "Known for his trenchant speeches and unbending liberal views, Dellums started his adult life as a social worker and political organizer in Berkeley, and brought those sensibilities to Washington. He later used his connections on Capitol Hill to benefit Oakland, when he served four years as mayor."
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Well, see, if I say anything there you will put it in the story. I don't know. I haven't ruled it out, and I haven't ruled it in," former Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.), when asked by WCCO if he'll run for office again.
 
** Presented by AARP: Americans 50 and over are the nation's most powerful voting bloc. In fact, more than 60 million of them voted in 2016-and this year, they're more motivated than ever to making sure that their voices are heard in Washington. 
They're frustrated with broken government. And they're fed up with politicians who'd rather get into fights than get results. The issues they care about most including Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers and prescription drug costs, are all on the line. America's 50-plus voters have put the candidates on notice. Anyone who ignores them will feel it on Election Day. aarp.org/vote **
 
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