Subject: Leading Indicators & a NAFTA Breakthrough - EconVue Spotlight September 30, 2018
From: "Ying Zhan" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 30 Sep 2018 20:08:46 -0700 (PDT)

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EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

Last week was the 73 rd session of the United Nations General Assembly 
in New York, held each fall to the dismay of Manhattanites who suffer a 
weeklong traffic nightmare. But for policy wonks, it is an opportunity 
to meet with and listen to world leaders at countless events on the 
sidelines of the UN meetings: seeing them interact in person can be a 
useful leading indicator of a country's future and its political 
economy.

At the Council on Foreign Relations, I was privileged to attend 
presentations by a range of global heads of government. Videos of some 
of the events are online, at cfr.org

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct1_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

. Among my favorites were PM Justin Trudeau

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct2_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

. As we await today's NAFTA news , it was easy to conclude it would not 
be easy to negotiate with FM Chrystia Freeland, a former journalist who 
sidestepped my question about Canada's cooperation with China on the new 
Polar Silk Road. I did wonder why Jim Carr, the trade minister on the 
left in the photo below did not play a more central role than the 
foreign minister in NAFTA, but fingers crossed this evening.

I was impressed by the energetic enthusiasm of President Moon Jae-in

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct3_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

of South Korea, who seems to be the unsung force behind the Korean peace 
process. Cyril Ramaphosa

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct4_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

, the president of South Africa frankly worried me and probably 
investors in the room with his glib discussion of land rights and an 
anti-corruption campaign aimed at multinational companies.

Most refreshing of all was Mahathir Mohamad, the always frank 93-year 
old prime minister of Malaysia, who in two years' time will cede power 
to the man he imprisoned, Anwar Ibrahim. His forecast: in fifty years, 
all the world will look like Malaysia. His recent comments on Chinese 
investment, and the closing of several major projects he said his 
country cannot afford, have caused a stir. EconVue expert Karim Pakravan

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct5_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

discusses some of the bumps and challenges along the Silk Road.

You also won't want to miss the video of the Symposium of the Legacy of 
the Global Financial Crisis

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct6_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

, details below as well as some other intriguing discussions of 
post-crisis macroeconomic policy. And finally just for fun, try the CFR 
online quizzes on foreign affairs and see how much you know about China, 
Wars, Trade, Foreign Aid etc. I am sad to say that I missed more than 
couple of questions on Canada before attending that presentation.

I've been asked how readers can support us and one way is by subscribing 
to the research of our consortium of independent EconVue experts. 
Michael Lewis

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct7_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

's work is always timely and lends a balanced perspective to a barrage 
of data releases. Click here

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct8_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

for more information. Many of our experts are available for 
conversations, presentations, and research. If there is an area we are 
not covering yet, please let us know, and feel free to forward this 
newsletter to friends and colleagues, and as they say, follow us on 
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RESEARCH BY ECONVUE EXPERTS

Speed Bumps on the Silk Road

https://econvue.com/pulse/speed-bumps-silk-road

Karim Pakravan

https://econvue.com/experts/karim-pakravan

China's Belt & Road project is meeting significant obstacles and seems 
in urgent need of a reboot. And the main sources of criticism and 
reevaluation come from some of the major beneficiaries of the project.

Data Round-Up: Real Consumption on Track for +3.5% Growth in 18Q3

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/data-round-real-consumption-track-35-growth-18q3

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

Real consumption appears headed for a solid +3.5% annualized gain in 
18Q3. Core PCE inflation, now at the Fed's +2% target, will likely drift 
up through next year. Regional surveys show healthy momentum for both 
manufacturing and services.

Geeking-Up Healthcare: Consumer Giant Best Buy Makes a Big Move

https://econvue.com/pulse/geeking-healthcare-consumer-giant-best-buy-makes-big-move

David W. Johnson

https://econvue.com/experts/david-w-johnson

Healthcare has experienced a parade of surprising megamergers and 
acquisitions during the last year. At first glance, Best Buy's August 
acquisition of GreatCall may be the most startling. At a deeper level, 
however, Best Buy's movement into healthcare reflects a nuanced 
understanding of consumerism, retail market dynamics and America's need 
for more connected, holistic care services.

Lending Gaps and Lessons

https://econvue.com/pulse/lending-gaps-and-lessons

Collin Canright

https://econvue.com/experts/collin-canright

The gap in small business lending, which the easy-money policies of the 
Federal Reserve were supposed to fill, are well documented. It's more 
difficult for small businesses to get small loans from banks, in large 
part because it's less profitable for banks of all sizes to make 
small-dollar loans. Fintech lenders have stepped in to fill the gap 
"through greater innovation in how small business loans are evaluated, 
underwritten, and managed."

Tech Can Sustainably Feed Developing World Cities of the Future. Here's 
How

https://econvue.com/pulse/tech-can-sustainably-feed-developing-world-cities-future-here%E2%80%99s-how

Banning Garrett

https://econvue.com/experts/banning-garrett

New technologies, coupled with new business models and supportive 
government policies, can create more resilient urban food ecosystems in 
the coming decades. These tech-enabled systems can sustainably link 
rural, peri-urban (areas just outside cities), and urban producers and 
consumers, increase overall food production, and generate opportunities 
for new businesses and jobs.

The Decennial Census has Big Political and Scientific Problems, and Not 
for the First Time

https://econvue.com/pulse/decennial-census-has-big-political-and-scientific-problems-and-not-first-time

Robert Shapiro

https://econvue.com/experts/robert-shapiro

At virtually every level, the 2020 decennial Census is in serious 
trouble. The Trump administration continues to press for a new Census 
question on each respondent's citizenship status, despite warnings from 
the National Academy of Sciences and others

https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/nation-and-world/us-census-citizenship-question-panned-by-scientists-civil-rights-groups-20180810

that the question will discourage millions of immigrants and others from 
responding at all.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT

Global Macro

Ten years on: The legacy and lessons of the financial crisis

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct22_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

9/24/2018 Council on Foreign Relations event VIDEO

I attended this event in NYC, one of many to discuss the 10-year 
anniversary of the Great Financial Crisis. Ruth Porat, the CFO of 
Alphabet moderated, a terrific choice. Fascinating to listen to the key 
players, Bernanke, Paulson and Geithner.

Secular stagnation, myth and reality

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct23_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

Gauti E. Eggertsson 9/2/2018 Blog Post

If you're interested in secular stagnation and the persistence of low 
global demand, you'll love this post. Assuming we have a recession in 
the next 2-3 years, fiscal rather than monetary policy will be center 
stage.

The most important least-noticed economic event of the decade

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct24_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

Neil Irwin 9/29/2018 New York Times

Most important, the mini-recession of 2015-16 offers a cautionary tale 
for any policymaker who might want to think of the United States as an 
economic island. What happens overseas can return to American shores 
faster and more powerfully than once seemed possible.

Who is funding the U.S. budget deficit?

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct25_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

Lisa Abramowicz 9/28/2018 Twitter

Chart of the week is by DB's Torsten Slok: US debt is increasingly 
domestic, even though foreign-held debt is low risk because the USD is 
also the world's reserve currency. Another sign of relative US economic 
strength.

Government debt per person

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct26_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

9/22/2018 the Spectator Index

Japan, Ireland and the US top the list. Yet Greece is deemed 
irresponsible.

Interview with&nbsp;Chad Syverson

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct27_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

6/2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

People who say economists should get out in the real world and study how 
businesses really work should read this interview. The University of 
Chicago economist says that productivity declines are not just due to 
mismeasurement, they are real and they are global.

Health Care

Vulnerability to pandemic flu could be greater today than a century ago

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct28_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

Rebecca Voelker 9/28/2018 JAMA Network

We have three times more people now and new modes of transmission such 
as passenger aircraft. The number of people living in urban slums 
exceeds the entire world population of 1918- and we still don't 
understand why some viruses are worse than others.

These are the economies with the most (and least) efficient health care

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct29_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

Lee J Miller & Wei Lu 9/19/2018 Bloomberg

Just as the dollar is the world's reserve currency, US health care also 
performs a global role in terms of research and innovation leadership. 
This investment is conflated with costs and yes, is borne by US 
citizens. But benefits are worldwide.

What will be the breakthrough that finally disrupts Alzheimer's?&nbsp;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmJGWCcbPEo&list=PLwj46yNDLyTWsjq8uyL5Cs8DlnfdbLH5d

9/13/2018 the Atlantic Video

The Atlantic Magazine was in Chicago to talk about Alzheimer's, a 
disease that is expected to grow 300% by 2050. When ⁩

https://twitter.com/‪@SCClemons‬⁩

asked the audience how many had been personally touched by Alzheimer's 
nearly every hand in the room shot up.

Labor

Chicago hotel workers strike for decent health care

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct32_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

9/19/2018 the Real News Network

Chicago is seeing one of the biggest labor actions in many, many years 
as hotel workers went on strike for health care benefits. Is this the 
start of something new on a national basis?

Just one percent of workers do gig work as main job, secondary job or 
additional income

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct33_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

Eileen Appelbaum and Hye Jin Rho 9/28/2018 Center for Economic and 
Policy Research Blog

This is not what I expected based upon all the hype around the gig 
economy.

Unions Did Great Things for the Working Class

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-06-13/unions-did-great-things-for-the-american-working-class

Noah Smith 6/13/2018 Bloomberg

Is the slow motion demise of unions a central factor in lower wages and 
increased income inequality?

Millennials Are Sitting Out the Bull Stock Market

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-09-05/millennials-are-sitting-out-the-bull-stock-market

Barry Ritholtz 9/5/2018 Bloomberg

I wonder if fear & job insecurity rooted in the GFC also drove 
millennials to accept lower wages? ⁩

https://twitter.com/‪@ritholtz‬⁩

says research suggests the financial crisis scarred a generation of 
young investors

FinTech

Mongolia: Central bank gives permission to issue first digital currency

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct37_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

9/28/2018 Altcointoday.com

From mining to crypto.

@DiarNewsletter analyzed how much the government is spending on 
blockchain analysis

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct38_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

9/24/2018 Twitter threads

US government spending on blockchain technology research is way up, as 
these charts show.

Can you live on cryptocurrency in China? Documentary Bitcoin Girl shows 
attempt to do so over 21 days

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct39_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

Zheping Huang 9/19/2018 South China Morning Post

The short answer is no, you can't live on bitcoin in China.

Hence my public comments over the past few years: it's all about public

https://twitter.com/anguschampion/status/1041756789228941312

Angus C de Crespigny 9/17/2018 Twitter threads

Confirms my understanding that a private blockchain is usually a 
suboptimal technology solution, and public blockchains powered by 
incentives (crypto) are a thing apart. From a technologist who tried the 
private route.

EU

Today, Europe lost the Internet. now, we fight back

https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2018/09/today-europe-lost-internet-now-we-fight-back

Cory Doctorow 9/12/2018 Electronic Frontier Foundation

Europe has totally lost its way along the digital highway. GDPR and now 
this.

Today I discovered an unfortunate consequence of GDPR

https://twitter.com/jeanqasaur/status/1039435801736536064

Jean Yang 9/11/2018 Twitter

GDPR and Mifid2 are two of the worst ideas to come out of Brussels ever, 
with long-lasting consequences that will permanently impair information 
and data flows in and out of Europe—The Great Wall of the European 
Union. Here's one story of GDPR's unintended consequences.

Overblown rhetoric over UK withdrawal

https://www.omfif.org/analysis/commentary/2018/september/overblown-rhetoric-over-uk-withdrawal/#utm_source=twitter

David Marsh 9/17/2018 OMIFF

Dramatic Brexit predictions are deliberately or unwittingly exaggerated 
to ward off unpleasant outcomes. Britain will leave the EU more or less 
on time on 29 March with an accord not too different from the Chequers 
compromise deal.

China

China property tax may be five years away, ex-head of finance ministry's 
think tank says

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01fe-1809/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct44_1/1?sid=TV2%3AiiSqerveg

Xu Wei 9/19/2018 Yicai Global

Maybe this is the reason behind recent increased bond issuance at the 
local government level. To replace expected income from property taxes.

In China, retired people are queuing up to go back to university

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/09/china-s-seniors-are-lining-up-to-go-back-to-college/

Neha Thirani Bagri 9/17/2018 World Economic Forum

Over 7 million senior citizens have gone back to school. Lifelong 
learning.

China can't afford a cashless society

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/11/china-cant-afford-a-cashless-society/

Rui Zhong 9/11/2018 Foreign Policy

Mobile payments leave out the poor and the elderly, and dampen 
consumption. Unintended consequences of rapid deployment of a new 
technology.

Cryptocurrency mining could become the new face of energy storage. 
Here's how

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/09/mining-for-cryptocurrencies-could-be-the-future-of-energy-storage/?utm_campaign=Feed%3A+inside-the-world-economic-forum+%28Inside+The+World+Economic+Forum%29&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=feedburner

Enass Abo-Hamed & Daniel Evans 9/16/2018 World Economic Forum

Use excess renewable energy that cannot otherwise be stored to mine 
cryptocurrencies, creating value and reinvestment opportunities in more 
clean energy.

PBoC's digital currency lab launches new research center

https://www.coindesk.com/pbocs-digital-currency-lab-launches-new-research-center-outside-of-beijing/

Wolfie Zhao 9/5/2018 Coin Desk

Looks like the People's Bank of China is all in on digital currency 
research. Given the difficulties of internationalizing the Yuan, 
unsurprising the PBoC would explore cryptocurrencies that could compete 
with the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.

With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

Econvue.com
https://www.econvue.com
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"What's Next? Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the Global Economy"
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