Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: 5 big takeaways from a wild 2018 — Democrats unveil their 2020 schedule — The pro-Booker super PAC launches
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Fri, 21 Dec 2018 09:03:03 -0600
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12/21/2018 10:00 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Morning Score will not publish from Dec. 24-Jan 1. Our next newsletter will publish on Jan. 2.

Editor's Note: This edition of Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here. 
          QUICK FIX         
Hard to believe, but this is the final Score of the year - and what a year it was. But 2018's big takeaways aren't the only thing we're covering today:

- The DNC announced the presidential primary debate format, and we're just seven months away from the first debate.

- The first 2020 presidential super PAC is here. A megadonor supporting New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) says he already has $4 million in commitments.

- 2020's downballot decisions are already heating up. Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) told POLITICO he'll decide over the holidays if he'll run again, and a Democrat who narrowly lost a battleground House seat said she's running again.

Happy Friday! And happy holidays. On the way out, we're trying out a new format. Email me your thoughts at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @lbarronlopez.

Days until the 2019 election: 319

Days until the 2020 election: 683
          THE TOPLINES         
2018 is dead, long live 2020. Here are five takeaways from the midterms and what they tell us about next cycle.

1 - Clinton and Trump districts. Democrats picked up a net of 40 seats in the lower chamber, something you may have heard before. Here's where 2020's battleground will likely be drawn: Of those 40, 22 came from districts Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. Next month, just three Republicans will represent Clinton-won districts: NY-24, PA-01 and TX-23. Republicans flipped three of the 13 districts held by Democrats that President Donald Trump carried in 2016.

2 - Republicans will be on defense. The GOP picked up a net of two seats in the Senate, but Democrats contained some of the bleeding. At the beginning of the cycle, Democrats had to defend 10 Senate seats in states the president carried in 2016. They only lost four of those - Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota - and flipped seats in Arizona and Nevada. In 2020, Republicans will start the cycle on defense in Arizona, Colorado and Maine, while Democrats try to hold on to Alabama.

3 - Nobody is safe from a primary. Just ask Reps. Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.), a member of leadership, and Mike Capuano (D-Mass.) a fairly reliable progressive, both of whom were picked off in primaries. Expect that trend to continue: Rep.-elect Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who vanquished Crowley, has said she'll push for primaries against more Democrats she and her allies believe are not progressive enough.

4 - The GOP is Trump's party now. This year proved it. Gone are Trump critics like Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) and Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.). Former rising stars of the party have been pushed aside - like Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who lost his reelection. And the president bashed losing House Republicans on the way out. 2020 will be a referendum on Trump, while the remaining Republicans likely hug closer to him.

5 - The presidential election will be fought on familiar territory. Look at the swing states this year: Both the gubernatorial and Senate election in Florida were tight (and expensive), and Ohio elected a Republican governor and Democratic senator. Meanwhile, Democrats celebrated victory up and down the ballot in Pennsylvania, while Arizona comfortably enters the swing-state grouping.
          IN THE TRENCHES         
THE DEBATE STAGE - Democratic debates are just about seven months away. And don't expect any undercard debates, as in the 2016 GOP nomination process - DNC chief Tom Perez said lots for debates would be drawn at random, and that debates would take place on consecutive nights (at least until the field narrows), POLITICO's Alex Thompson reported. More: "The DNC chairman also told reporters that the DNC would be hosting twelve debates during the 2020 primary with the first two being held in June and July of 2019. There will be a total of six in 2019 and six in 2020. The first four early states - Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina - will not host debates until 2020. Perez said this
 was to ensure that voters around the country would be able to see the candidates instead of just voters in the important early states."

JUST SUPER - The first 2020 presidential super PAC is here, backing Booker. The New York Times' Shane Goldmacher and Ken Vogel: "Steve Phillips, an influential San Francisco-based Democratic donor and activist, said he would formally file paperwork on Thursday to create the pro-Booker super PAC, Dream United. ... Mr. Phillips said he had already collected $4 million in commitments. And he suggested he would continue collecting money regardless of whether Mr. Booker wanted his support."

PRESIDENTIAL BIG BOARD - Sen. Sherrod Brown's (D-Ohio) name remains in the mix, but don't expect a decision soon. In a (very good) profile of Brown and Connie Schultz, his wife, BuzzFeed News' Henry Gomez reported that the pair "aren't likely to make a decision before the end of the year." POLITICO Magazine's Michael Kruse has his own great profile of Schultz, and how she'll be nothing less than a full partner in any Brown presidential campaign.

- Corker 2020? The outgoing senator told the AP's Jonathan Mattise that he isn't ruling out a run, but that he shouldn't be considered as "strongly considering."

RETIREMENT WATCH - Roberts said he will speak with family and supporters over the holidays about whether he'll run for a fifth term, in an interview with my Campaign Pro colleagues James Arkin and Daniel Strauss. More: "He said he was not certain if he would make a final decision before the new Congress convenes in January, but Roberts said he expects to make an announcement 'early in the year.'"

THE GRANITE STATE - GOP Gov. Chris Sununu predicted moves by the president's allies to drop the GOP's historic neutrality in the primary will fail, per the Concord Monitor's Paul Steinhauser.

THE BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE - A very early announcement in what's sure to be a competitive House race: Democrat Kara Eastman, who narrowly lost to GOP Rep. Don Bacon in NE-02 in 2018, is itching for a 2020 rematch, announcing her intention to run again in a statement. Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, who also narrowly lost in TX-23, said in an email to supporters she's "very likely" to run again.

INVESTIGATION TIME? - After reports that a small groups of Democrats experimented in the 2017 Alabama Senate race with using tactics similar to Russian trolls, Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) is calling for an investigation. "What is obvious now is that we have focused so much on Russia that we haven't focused on the fact that people in this country could take the same playbook and do the same damn thing," Jones said, per POLITICO's Burgess Everett. "I'd like to see the FEC and the Justice Department look at this and see if any laws are being violated or were violated. And if there were, do it. Go after them."

- The House Ethics Committee is expanding its investigation into Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.). POLITICO's John Bresnahan: "[T]he Ethics Committee will look into whether 'Representative Schweikert may have used official resources to benefit his campaign or pressured congressional staff to perform political activity'; if Schweikert 'authorized compensation to an employee who did not perform duties commensurate with his House employment'; whether Schweikert or his campaign committee 'received loans or gifts from a congressional employee'; and whether Schweikert failed to include information on his annual financial disclosure reports or Federal Election Commission filings."

WHAT'S NEXT? - Rep. Jeff Denham (R-Calif.), who lost his reelection bid, has talked with the White House about potentially being nominated as Interior secretary, he told the Los Angeles Times' Sarah Wire.

- Amanda Brown Lierman, the DNC's political and organizing director, is leaving, Alex and Daniel reported. She was one of the highest-ranking black women in the party.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "The moment I found out Trump could tweet himself was comparable to the moment in 'Jurassic Park' when Dr. Grant realized that velociraptors could open doors," former Trump Organization social media manager Justin McConney to POLITICO's Ben Schreckinger.
    
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